Introduction: In 2017, the number of candidates exceeded 2 million; by 2020, it surpassed 3 million; and in 2022, the figure broke through 4.5 million. With the reduction in job positions and the mismatch in talent caused by the expansion of universities, further education has become a must for most students. Driven by concepts such as the "companion economy" and the "lazy economy," the future development prospects for products and services related to the "education advancement economy" look promising.
On March 11th, when the 2022 national postgraduate examination passing scores were announced, it instantly trended with joy. However, when they saw the actual scorelines, both those who had decided to take the exam and those who had not fell silent. Apart from the less popular fields of agronomy and military science, for example, the academic master's scoreline in Area A saw a universal increase of over 10 points, peaking at 15 points. Many aspiring postgraduate students can only play the song "Liàng Liàng" to comfort themselves at this moment.
Looking at past data, in 2017 and 2020, there were two substantial increases in postgraduate student enrollment. Despite such expansion, the reality is the growth in the number of applicants has far exceeded that of enrollees, leading to the increasingly difficult phenomenon of postgraduate examinations each year. The exam has become another single-plank bridge crossed by thousands of troops following the college entrance examination. Even so, millions of students continue to join the fray, with some even willing to try for a second or third time... A popular saying in postgraduate forums goes, "Once you think about taking the exam, unless you pass, you'll never truly let it go."
Yearly Postgraduate Student Enrolment Numbers Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics
In recent years, the numbers of postgraduate applicants and enrollees show that the number of failed candidates is growing year by year Data Source: Ministry of Education
In 2019, the recruitment numbers for junior college students in China surged by over 1 million. This substantial expansion resulted in a sharp increase in the total number of junior college graduates in 2022. The 2022 cohort of national university graduates is projected to reach 10.76 million, an increase of 1.67 million compared to the previous year, with the growth primarily coming from junior college graduates. A large portion of these soon-to-be junior college graduates will take the path of advancing to a bachelor's degree, potentially driving the economy of education advancement to new heights.
National College Historic Junior College Admission Numbers Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics
The rising trend of higher education in recent years cannot be separated from two major factors: the downturn of the economic situation and the inflation of diploma value.
Since the East Asian financial crisis began in 1997, the state initiated the expansion of universities to stimulate domestic demand. Over the past 20 years, there has been a rapid increase in the higher education participation rate, with the number of university students experiencing a dramatic multifold increase. Since 2013, due to global environmental influences, China's GDP has broken away from the high-speed growth trend of previous decades. The year-over-year growth rate fell below 8% and continues to decline each year, putting substantial pressure on new job creation. The increased number of university graduates, along with the lack of high-end job positions, has led to a situation in the job market where there are "more monks than porridge," which explains why the media has dubbed each year's graduation season as "the toughest graduation season in history."
As the difficulty of finding employment for graduates increases year by year, more students see pursuing higher academic qualifications as a way to gain an edge in the job market, which is unquestionable. However, diplomas have also been "rising with the tide," and credential inflation has become apparent. Companies are starting to recruit bachelor's degree holders; middle schools are hiring master's degree holders; and universities prefer doctoral candidates for academic advisor positions... It's no wonder people exclaim that it has become "too competitive." As the ancient saying goes, reading breaks ten thousand "rolls," and the army of academics grows steadily at an annual rate of 15%-20%, which is driving the growth of certain goods and services.
Moojing's analysis of the entire network of e-commerce data has found that in recent years, the education advancement fever mainly drove the following categories of goods and services.
There's a common saying: "Choice is more important than effort." Many candidates are at a loss at the beginning of their postgraduate studies and are too lazy to collect information, thus they are willing to pay for information gathered by others. In 2016, Yan Tutu's famous postgraduate tutor, Zhang Xuefeng, rose to fame online with "Seven-minute Interpretation of 34 985 Project Universities," making postgraduate planning and university/program selection accepted as a new service by candidates. According to Moojing data, sales of related products on Taobao Tmall for postgraduate planning (school selection consulting) have reached tens of thousands per month. With accumulated industry data and goodwill, a single phone call can sell for hundreds to thousands of yuan.
Source: Moojing Market Intelligence
Introduction of a Postgraduate Planning Course Source: Tmall
On the other hand, online tutoring is one of the new and bizarre services driven by the recent spike in education advancement. There's nothing you can't find on the "almighty Taobao." During the review and preparation process, "can't control oneself" and "no one to accompany" are common complaints among candidates, and related services emerged in 2020. Against the backdrop of the "companion economy," some highly educated individuals offer one-on-one learning supervision services on e-commerce platforms like Idle Fish, and there are even real-time video connections to accompany studying. On Taobao Tmall, organized tuition class products have also emerged in large numbers, with headteachers creating groups for supervising clock-ins, leading professional courses, and supervising the entire study plan, providing thorough and meticulous services. The monthly sales of these products have exceeded one million yuan.
Source: Moojing Market Intelligence
Detail Introduction of Online Tutoring Classes Source: Tmall
Compared to smartphones, which can more easily distract attention, and bulky laptops, many postgraduate candidates prefer lightweight and textbook-sized tablets, mainly for attending online classes, reading papers, and searching for information. They are more convenient to use. Moojing Market Intelligence data shows that in Tmall's Taobao, the sales of tablets with "postgraduate exam" in the product title remain very small in 2019 but have stabilized at around 7% in the past two years, with a sales peak during the severe period of the 2020 pandemic.
Many tablets have the phrase "postgraduate exam" in their product titles. Source: Tmall
Data Source: Moojing Market Intelligence
Then there are these small planners, which help students plan and organize their daily study schedule effectively, differentiate priorities, and clearly manage tasks. These help students maintain self-discipline, and after a day's study, they feel "extremely accomplished" – they are arguably the most cost-effective study tools for postgraduates. According to Moojing Market Intelligence data, sales of these planners with "postgraduate exam" in their titles on Taobao Tmall have reached nearly 2% of the total notebook/planner sales, with annual sales nearing 50 million yuan.
Self-Discipline Planner Source: Tmall
Data Source: Moojing Market Intelligence
These are products ignited by the pandemic-induced remote postgraduate re-examination process. In recent years, due to the pandemic, many have had to participate in postgraduate re-examinations remotely, and a recent search (March 2022) on Tmall for "postgraduate re-examination" yielded many products such as cameras and phone stands. One may wonder, why not use the built-in camera of the computer instead of buying a separate one? Consider that remote re-examination students are unable to fully display themselves before the examiners, only showing their faces, making high-pixel, autofocus, and wide-angle lenses particularly important. Especially in 2022, many universities introduced new rules for re-examinations, requiring the use of a "dual-camera position" video mode to prevent imposters from taking exams, which is expected to boost sales of such products.
According to Moojing data, products with "postgraduate re-examination" in the title, such as cameras and stands, show a significant monthly sales spike during re-examination period. In 2020, due to the pandemic, the postgraduate re-examination was mostly postponed to May, resulting in a sales peak in May, while in 2021, sales returned to their peak in March. Compared to 2020, products with "postgraduate re-examination" in the title in 2021 saw a higher growth rate in sales of stands over cameras.
Camera Featuring Postgraduate Re-examination Selling Points Source: Tmall
Triangle Stand Featuring Postgraduate Re-examination Selling Points Source: Tmall
Cameras and Stands Related to Postgraduate Re-examinations Sold Hot During the Month of the Post-Pandemic Re-examination Data Source: Moojing Market Intelligence
Consumer Reviews of Some Stands Source: Moojing E-commerce Listening
This category is relatively conventional, encompassing postgraduate entrance examination (Kaoyan) training courses and textbooks for undergraduate to bachelor degree upgrading. According to Moojing data, there are sales peaks for Taobao and Tmall postgraduate entrance exam-related products in March, July, and September each year. March marks the month when the results from the previous year are released, attracting students who did not pass and new junior-year students to start planning for the postgraduate entrance exam or for candidates to prepare for reexamination. The summer break in July and the start of the school year in September are also when many candidates begin to prepare for the exams.
Source: Moojing Market Intelligence
Source: Moojing Market Intelligence
Moojing e-commerce data indicates that the market size for postgraduate entrance exam-related books is larger than that for training, while the market size for undergraduate to bachelor degree upgrade training is larger than for books, possibly because the postgraduate exam is relatively more standardized compared to the upgrade exam, leading candidates to prefer purchasing books for self-study. On the other hand, whether for postgraduate exams or upgrades, training products have a higher growth rate than books, reflecting a current trend where candidates would rather pay for tutoring than study on their own, revealing a 'lazy' mindset. This provides a vast market space for educational training institutions.
Looking at the broader environment, the continuously rising number of undergraduate and specialized degree holders, combined with a less-than-ideal employment landscape, indicates that the enthusiasm for further education is unlikely to cool down in the short term. Consequently, the sustained hot sales of the aforementioned products and services will continue. How to seize the business opportunities in the trend of upgrading education is becoming a question for many businesses to consider.
